Thursday, April 28, 2011

First round big board!

I couldn't sleep last night because I was so excited! Finally draft day! Lets get right to it here with my Bengals Big Board for round one.

For the draft noobs, a big board is what a team makes to use as a guide during the draft. They will list each prospect they've scouted, usually around 120, 150 in the order they would take them and with a grade for each guy. There is one of these sitting in every team's draft room and it is the culmination of a year's worth of work and debate.

For obvious reasons these are kept very secret so what I'm going to do here is put together a little board here for the order in which I think, from the information I synthesized, the Bengals should have their prospects for the first round. If you're the Bengals you really only need like 3 guys here but in case of a trade down or something else unforeseen I'm going to make a list a little bit longer so hopefully you will have an idea on how to feel about their pick this year.

Cincinnati Bengals Draft Board

1. Patrick Peterson, CB LSU

Corner is certainly not a need even if they let Jonathan Joseph go. However I believe from what I've heard that this guy will be a stud and some still think he's the best player in the draft. He can play all over the secondary for you and I think with his size and tackling ability he'd be a great fit with us as a safety/corner hybrid ala Charles Woodson if not a strait safety. Something I haven't talked about is he is a great return man too. Very dangerous with the ball in his hands. You don't take a guy at number 4 for his return skills but it sure does help. When a talent like this falls in your lap I think you would be stupid to let it go. Don't worry about the need, just grab a great player at an important position. I don't think there is a way you don't feel good about this pick.

2. Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama

If this guy is still on the board at number 4 they should sprint up to the podium, tuck the card into the commissioner's breast pocket, give it a pat smile and wink and skip back to their desk whistling a jaunty tune. I don't think he'll be there but this guy is another one I've heard as the best guy in the draft. He's big and very athletic. Has a high motor, productive, no off the field issues. Saw a replay of him tracking down Cam Newton who was trying to do his best Michael Vick impression of escaping out of the backfield. Darues tracked him down one on one and made the sack. Would love to see this guy hemming in Rapelisthburger. He really doesn't have anything going against him and he's at an important position. I think this is a safe pick with low bust potential and plenty of upside. We don't need a DT but once again, when talent like this falls into your lap you've got to take that opportunity.

3. A.J. Green, WR Georgia

This one sort of breaks my heart because it means one of our young talented receivers is going to come off the field. Once again though, I keep hearing how he's the best player in the draft. I know I said that about the last 2 but thats the nice thing about picking 4th this year. I think as long as one of these 3 are here you can feel really good about the value of the pick. Would be surprised if all 3 were gone since I'm pretty sure at least 1 team isn't going to be unable to resist Cam Newton between Carolina and Buffalo (sorry Pratt). Von Miller should be taken before number 4 too so it's pretty safe to say one of these 3 will be there.
So while WR isn't a terribly important position with them being easy to find and easy to take out of games this guy is just too good to pass on if you can't find something on defense you like. I've heard he's the best WR prospect since Megatron (Calvin Johnson). The Lions were a down trodden franchise and they went ahead and took the freak wide out because they knew he was far too talented to pass up and it worked out well for them. Like I said, I don't like taking a receiver this high and it takes a young talented player off the field but he's just too good to pass up.

4. Nick Fairly, DT Auburn

There is a significant jump in bust potential after those 3 on the board. Fairly was once considered a sure shot for the top 2 in this draft but for some reason has fallen as low as 8 in a lot of mock drafts without playing a snap. Well you're not fooling me media. Drafts almost always find a way to come back to the tape. I've heard work ethic concerns and character issues, all kinds of stuff about this guy. Great, whatever, dude is a freak. I've heard more than one experienced draft expert that I trust say they were giggling at his pro day about how fast he is for being so big. Not strait line speed but with his hands and agility which is what you want. Explosive is the key word here. He's dominated a high level of competition and taken over games like Ndamukong Suh used to in college. I'm not saying he's Suh because he's not. But there is no questioning the talent here.
I think I might have a spoiler alert on this one and I almost feel bad telling you guys cause it might ruin the surprise but I did hear that very recently John Hays (Bengals D line coach) was seen leaving Fairly's house. Could have tipped their hand. While he's obviously not my top choice I think he would still be a good pick up. He has that bust potential but also a crazy high ceiling (ceiling is what they use to refer to a guy's potential get better).

5. Von Miller, LB Texas A&M

Well, this pick doesn't make much sense to me. He's pretty clearly a 3-4 outside linebacker and is viewed as the best pass rusher in the draft. He's a great player and a very safe pick but I'm not sure where the Bengals put him. He's not going to be an every down defensive end and you can't use a 4th overall pick on your SAM linebacker as I discussed in the last post. You sure as hell can't use it on a situational pass rusher either. I'm sure Zimmer could find something to do with him on every down but I just don't think its a good fit. All that said, if they take him in the first you can't be too upset about it. He's a great talent and he could be the kind of guy you make room for in your defensive scheme.

6. Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri

Well, he makes the list because you're sort of out of players worth the 4th pick at this point. It would be a reach but so would anything else at this point besides the players listed above. Good news is this guy can strait spin it. Has the big gun for an arm you look for, good accuracy and did a lot with a little at Missouri as far as receivers. He's athletic and smart for the position as well.
The reason he would be a reach is he isn't great in a pocket. When he gets pressured he gets bad. Has happy feet and will bail out and run instead of sliding in the pocket and keeping his eyes down field. He also struggled against bump and run coverage on his receivers. When he couldn't read the hole in the defense right away he looked lost. All this is what I've heard.
Maybe this is correctable, maybe its not. Scares me a bit though. If the Bengals take him here you shake your head a little and say "Damn it Mike Brown, I hope someone knows something about him I don't". He could be a very good starting QB but there are much more talented players that will be on the board at 4th overall.

Speaking of being scared, here are the doomsday scenarios for the Bengals that might actually happen.

7. Julio Jones, WR Alabama

I'm not saying Julio isn't a great player because he is. But he is NOT the 4th best player in this draft. I've heard reports that he Bengals have him ahead of Green which freaks me out a little. He's just not as good at football as A.J. Green. Julio is crazy athletic sure and I heard Mel Kiper say that he's the best blocking receiver he's EVER graded which is a hell of a thing since Mel has been at this shit since like 1972 or whatever. Coach Lewis loves his blocking WRs too but you sure as shit don't pay them 10 millions dollars a year to block defensive backs. This would be a mistake. Lets hope it doesn't come to this.

8. Cam Newton, QB Auburn (Noooooo!)

This is worst plausible scenario I can think of for the Bengals as far as it stands right now. This guy is loaded with potential sure, but he just has all those red flags that scare you to death. Upside here is he is big, strong, fast and has a god damn howitzer mounted on his right shoulder.
Downside is he's inaccurate, seems pretty dumb and I'm not convinced he won't stop giving a shit about football as soon as he gets a hold of his big fat signing bonus. He's just not a fit for the West Coast offense. Could be a bad fit for any offense. Lets hope this guy is gone well before the Bengals pick at number 4 so Mike isn't tempted to pike up Akili Smith 2.0.
Now maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he's going to be the best football player in the league 4 years from now and he certainly has the potential to do so but if the Bengals take him here I will be very upset.


There ya have it. Read up and enjoy! By the way I still have my big board I made for the Bengals last year, I'll put it up when I get a chance. Might be interesting to see how my picks turned out compared to where I had them on the wish list last year.

I think this is going to be an exciting draft for the Bengals this year. Past two years it was pretty clear cut who they wanted (Andre Smith and Jermaine Gresham) but I think it's wide open for them in the first round.

I'll put up my 2nd round board either tonight or tomorrow before the round starts. Hopefully the Bengals won't trade up into the first before I get a chance to post it.
Enjoy the first round everyone!

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